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Many of the assets that have served Wellington well for decades are ageing and will increasingly need to be renewed. At the same time, severe weather, changing technology and the possibility of greater reliance on electricity are changing what the network may need to accommodate.
Simply, we are at important moment for planning for our future network. That means making choices now about what needs to be done first and what can reasonably wait.
Without additional investment, reliability is expected to decline as equipment ages and failures become more common. We also all know waiting longer would also make future replacement costs higher and increase disruption for customers.
We are at the first stage of a longer-term programme to renew and strengthen Wellington's electricity network. Over the next five years, we want to focus on the most important work first by replacing ageing equipment, investing in network capacity where it is most needed, and building the people, systems and technology required to deliver a larger renewal programme in the future.
This is the first phase of a 15-year plan to modernise the network while managing costs for customers. Rather than trying to do everything at once, we've prioritised the work that will have the greatest impact on network safety, reliability and future demand. Lower-priority projects have been pushed into later stages so we can keep the programme affordable and achievable. The proposal will be independently verified and assessed by the Commerce Commission before it determines WELL's customised price-quality path.
Specifically, our plan focuses on replacing some of the network's highest-risk cables and transformers, addressing critical safety and reliability issues, building new network capacity where it is needed, and building the capability needed to deliver the longer-term programme at a pace that keeps costs and disruption manageable.
One of the biggest challenges has been balancing reliability and affordability. We could spend more and move faster. We could also spend less and do less work. Instead, we've developed a programme that seeks to address the most urgent needs first while limiting the impact on customer bills and keeping the work at a scale we can realistically deliver.
Wellington starts from a relatively high level of reliability. Our proposal aims to keep the network safe and reliable, but reliability may decline temporarily during the first phase (CPP1) as we balance the pace of renewals against affordability and deliverability. However, the proposed investment is expected to slow that decline and reduce longer-term risks compared with taking no additional action.
Ultimately, if we can start these plans as soon as possible, this would mean an increase in Wellingtonian's electricity bills by about $12-14 a month. We can spend more or less, but we know waiting longer will mean more cost.
We need to maintain an affordable and reliable network while getting ready for a future with greater electricity demand, more homes switching off gas, and new technologies that change how people generate and use electricity.
The network we rely on today exists because we planned ahead. Our goal is to do the same, making sensible investments now so Wellington continues to benefit from safe, reliable and affordable electricity for decades to come.
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